Desplazamiento forzado de la población en edad de trabajar en Colombia 2000-2007
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Data
2010Autore
Sadit Ruano, EduardoDirettore
Berrio Norman, Mary CeciliaPublishers
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
facoltà
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas
programma
Maestría en Economía
Titolo ottenuto
Magíster en Economía
Tipo
Tesis/Trabajo de grado - Monografía - Maestría
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Sommario
Para abordar este trabajo, se utiliza el modelo de gravedad de Newton, el que además de la Población y la Distancia, se ha ampliado con las variables Violencia y Tierra abandonada. El procedimiento a seguir, se apoya en la estimación a través de los datos de panel, que es una técnica econométrica robusta que conduce a conclusiones importantes. La aplicación y estimación econométrica del modelo de gravedad al fenómeno del desplazamiento forzado, permitió determinar desde el punto de vista estadístico, conclusiones significativas y desde el ámbito económico, deducciones importantes. Con lo anterior, se realizó el ejercicio de estimar la distancia recorrida por los desplazados para ubicar un lugar de permanencia y se estableció que el 43.6% de las personas en edad de trabajar que se desplazan a otros departamentos, realizan recorridos estimados en el 42.7% de la distancia total entre capitales. Respecto a las personas que se desplazan al interior de cada departamento (56.6%), se estima que recorren el 36.3% de las distancias entre los municipios de expulsión y la capital. Con estos resultados, se corrobora que el recorrido de la mayoría de las personas en edad de trabajar expulsadas, se desplaza en distancias cortas.
Astratto
In this investigation, the issue of forced displacement by violence of the working age Colombian population is studied. Working age people are potentially productive and represent in average a 60% of the whole displaced population. Moreover, this population fulfills the age, physical, and mental conditions to perform labor activities, and is capable to make decisions under pressure about traveling short and advisable distances in order to guarantee personal and family safety. Under this prospect, the main topic to take into account for public politics formulation, is determining the distances covered by the affected ones. This estimation would allow allocating the resource transfers with best precision, mitigating the displacement problem, and thwarting the impacts in the settlement places such as pressure on the labor market, increasing of informal activities, higher use of public spaces and services, etc. To approach this problem, a relaxation of the gravity model of Newton is proposed, adding the Violence and Left Land variables to the typical variables in the model (i.e., Population and Distance). The performed procedure is based on the estimation with panel data, which is a robust econometric technique that leads to important conclusions. Econometric estimation and the application of the gravity model to the forced displacement phenomenon, allow determining significant conclusions from the statistics point of view, and important deductions from the economic area. With these procedures, the estimation of the traveled distance by the displaced population is performed. The results show that a 43.6% of the working age people that is displaced to other departments, cover an estimated distance of 42.7% of the total distance between provincial capitals. Besides, people that are displaced into each department (56.6%), cover an estimated distance of a 36.3% of the distance between the expulsion municipalities and the capital. These results show that the distance covered by the most of the working age displaced population is short.
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