Theoretical reduction of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Colombia from reduction in the population exposure to tobacco, alcohol, excess weight and sedentary lifestyle: a modelling study
Visualizar/ Abrir
Data
2020-09-11Autor(es)
de Vries, EstherTorres, Miguel Zamir
Rojas, Martha Patricia
Díaz, Gustavo
Herrán, Oscar Fernando
Autor(es) Corporativo(s)
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística
Tipo
Artículo de revista
ISSN
2044-6055
COAR
Artículo de revistaCompartilhe este registro
Citación
Metadata
Mostrar registro completo
Documentos PDF
Título em inglês
Theoretical reduction of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Colombia from reduction in the population exposure to tobacco, alcohol, excess weight and sedentary lifestyle: a modelling studyAbstract
Aims To determine the potential impact fraction of alcohol
and tobacco consumption, high body mass index and low
physical activity on colorectal cancer burden in Colombia
for the period 2016–2050.
Methods Based on age-specific and sex-specific data on
colorectal cancer incidence, data from population-based
surveys for the exposure data and population projections,
the macrosimulation model Prevent V.3.01 was used
to model expected colorectal cancer incidence for the
period 2016–2050. Baseline models were those where
exposure levels were not subject to change because of
interventions. Two intervention scenarios were specified:
one with elimination of exposure to the risk factor as of
2017 and a second one where over a 10-year period the
current prevalence data gradually declined until they reach
90% of the 2016 levels.
Results Under the reference scenarios, a total number of
274637 colorectal cancers would be expected to occur
in the period 2016–2050. Under the scenario of 10%
gradual decline in the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco
consumption, physical inactivity and high body mass index,
a total of 618, 488, 2954 and 2086 new cases, respectively,
would be avoided. Under scenarios of elimination, these
numbers of avoided cases would be 6908 (elimination
alcohol), 6104 (elimination tobacco), 16637 (optimizing
physical inactivity) and 25089 (all on ideal weight).
Conclusions In order to reduce the burden of colorectal
cancer, it is important to take measures to halt the current
trends of increasing sedentary behaviour and overweight
in the Colombian population. Proportionally, alcohol and
tobacco consumption are less important population risk
factors for colorectal cancer
Cobertura Espacial
ColombiaLink para o recurso
https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/10/e037388Fonte
BMJ Open; Volumen 10 Número 10 , Páginas 1 - 8 (2020)
Google Analytics Statistics
Collections
- Artículos [682]